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QUARTERLY ECONOMIC SURVEY Q3 2025
The percentage of firms expecting their prices to rise remains high at 44%, from a near-historic high 55% in Q1.
Prices
As measured as a percentage balance, the services sector stands at +42% while the manufacturing sector stands at +43%, similar to 2022 levels where the UK faced an energy price crisis.
External factors
Overall, tax continues to be the biggest concern for businesses, cited by 59%, slightly up from 56% in Q2. Before the 2024 Budget, taxation was cited by 36% of firms.
Concern about inflation has also increased, cited by 57% compared with 52% in the previous quarter.
Firms in hospitality sector are the most likely to be concerned about taxation and inflation, at 62% and 63%, respectively
The view from businesses:
“The uncertainty around future tax increases to business is directly affecting investment and recruitment decisions we are making. Projects are going on hold over the next couple of months until the end of the year.”
Medium sized manufacturing firm in Liverpool
“National insurance increase was a disincentive to further employment, and as a business we cannot cope with further taxation.”
Small manufacturing firm in Scotland
“Increases in NI contributions and also uncertainty on how favourable the UK government will treat business in the future are a concern.”
Micro professional services firm in Northern Ireland
“Costs are spiralling out of control in almost all cost areas....The burden of taxation is becoming too high to live with.”
Medium sized transport firm in Aberdeen
